Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b78d885ce7c0441442a18e4821e43e724ff1681d15e91dc6074c3263faec646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 78c | 17,924$13,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,025.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…19f5backed No | 78c | 14,048$10,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 22c | 14,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 14c | 10,162$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 16c | 4,969$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 27c | 4,901$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 4,068$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.88 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 5c | 3,600$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 21c | 2,562$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…c61ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,489$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 77c | 1,292$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 12c | 1,198$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…f87abacked Yes | 26c | 1,042$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 30c | 880.63$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 4c | 574.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…a0f3backed Yes | 36c | 528.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…6f27backed Yes | 35c | 486.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 31c | 261.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Yes | 17c | 257.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 25c | 232.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…9ae3backed No | 78c | 166.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Yes | 29c | 165.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…93eebacked Yes | 24c | 128.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…92c7backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…2902backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote?this page
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote?Yes won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by less than 20% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by more than 60% of the vote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.