Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21be7daceb0b5463e4affbbf2c66d100bb7d7d706c9851ea965f41ed8135f870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 74c | 16,396$12,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,063.71 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 50c | 5,260$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.17 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 19c | 4,750$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 73c | 4,740$3,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 26c | 4,192$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed Yes | 39c | 3,317$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 27c | 2,901$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 77c | 2,834$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 42c | 2,002$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 45c | 1,954$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 76c | 1,610$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…c61ebacked No | 47c | 1,371$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,098$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 28c | 781.54$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.53 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 2c | 750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 60c | 550$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 44c | 510.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 51c | 459.69$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 25c | 299$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 23c | 218.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 55c | 209.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Yes | 32c | 204.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 66c | 164.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…2c83backed Yes | 27c | 40.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…d07ebacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote?this page
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by less than 20% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by more than 60% of the vote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.