Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b589df4e4d7bfe9595c75a800b0b497cb2d991b9f66b9cab5f6acd3bcbf117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,804 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kostyuk | 50c | 922.66$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.83 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Kostyuk | 50c | 726.4$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 50c | 653.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rybakina | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Kostyuk | 49c | 506$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.94 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Rybakina | 54c | 371.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Kostyuk | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Kostyuk | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Rybakina | 53c | 249.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 285 | 52.3%149 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rybakina | 50c | 211.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Kostyuk | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rybakina | 50c | 159.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Rybakina | 57c | 151.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Rybakina | 56c | 137.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rybakina | 43c | 115.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Kostyuk | 63c | 114.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kostyuk | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Rybakina | 50c | 80.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Kostyuk | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rybakina | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Rybakina | 54c | 55.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Kostyuk | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Kostyuk | 50c | 47.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Rybakina | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Kostyuk | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Rybakina | 48c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Rybakina | 41c | 27.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Kostyuk | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Kostyuk | 51c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Rybakina | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina won
- Kostyuk vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Kostyuk vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs RybakinaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.