Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e087415b5086fc4d3d32a6d1b07ba88a8c110a0f8c36d9b7e69edf52c500cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b46…8438backed Yes | 65c | 1,542$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.75 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 39c | 1,320$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.47 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 20c | 1,199$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.42 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 1,011$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.89 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Yes | 57c | 877.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…caaebacked Yes | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 35c | 418.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 66c | 396.95$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 61c | 258.49$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 126 | 63.5%80 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…a779backed Yes | 66c | 191.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 65c | 154.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked Yes | 59c | 133.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa96…fafcbacked Yes | 64c | 123.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…3adcbacked Yes | 64c | 114.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…19c0backed No | 44c | 93.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 58.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca58…7975backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed Yes | 64c | 38.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 190 | 69.5%132 W · 58 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 63c | 33.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…5eb9backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ce…9c25backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…9659backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina leading at halftime?this page
- Iceland leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.