Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5503d9b50a8d9c123d15c4412427b993ede1013328a8921559c70080ac602804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Keys, Bondar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Keys | 74c | 2,982$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.7 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Keys | 67c | 1,473$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.79 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Bondar | 33c | 1,220$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.75 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bondar | 24c | 1,178$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…92b2backed Keys | 64c | 761.65$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…2bc9backed Bondar | 26c | 735.08$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bondar | 32c | 544.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.61 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bondar | 34c | 491.54$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Bondar | 44c | 416.12$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c7…de4bbacked Keys | 66c | 235.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Bondar | 26c | 228.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Bondar | 26c | 91.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Bondar | 26c | 90.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 226 | 46%104 W · 122 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Bondar | 26c | 90.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb804…cd66backed Bondar | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 154 | 16.2%25 W · 129 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Keys | 66c | 74.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Bondar | 39c | 72.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Keys | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bondar | 37c | 49.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 9,444 | 44.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L | -249.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bondar | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7,227 | 49.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L | +118.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Bondar | 26c | 40.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Keys | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Keys | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bondar | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5)this page
- Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Anna BondarMadison Keys won
- Keys vs. Bondar: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Madison Keys vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.