Tennis · resolved market
Madison Keys vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5247415766b44343541fe5c3ec343efed86cc6e54a7d58c89d85f6a2ed4e60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over 2.5 | 29c | 1,477$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.69 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 937.96$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.01 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 72c | 486$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 37c | 177.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 107.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 96.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 74.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 72.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over 2.5 | 29c | 43.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…2a35backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 43.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 32.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Under 2.5 | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madison Keys vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Anna BondarMadison Keys won
- Keys vs. Bondar: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5)Keys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.