Earnings · resolved market
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55611fe396bb385ea59f77d73b990fc1126e6dfe8dc6ae063f8f24b7708b97b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 19c | 292.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 12c | 231.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 353 | 36.5%129 W · 224 L | +21.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 14c | 217.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked No | 21c | 173.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 162.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 318 | 29.2%93 W · 225 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 134$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8e86backed No | 16c | 128.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed Yes | 75c | 70.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…a5f4backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 72c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 273 | 52%142 W · 131 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…0ad7backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 70c | 29.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +170.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 73c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…3163backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.