Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559809c476f9524691a41621d084a0ea1b3e2e6ce23bb9f7977d46a4eab54f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof Shopify Rebellion Black, Nightblood Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…84a6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 834.32$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 231 | 51.9%120 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Nightblood Gaming | 5c | 725.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 38c | 526.75$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.52 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nightblood Gaming | 40c | 451.81$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Nightblood Gaming | 33c | 438.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 393.93$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nightblood Gaming | 33c | 329.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 67c | 325.43$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 313.87$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Nightblood Gaming | 14c | 281.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…75cfbacked Nightblood Gaming | 34c | 220.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Nightblood Gaming | 41c | 191.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…a152backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 89.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 67c | 87.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 33c | 81.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nightblood Gaming | 39c | 57.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764c…c68abacked Nightblood Gaming | 40c | 53.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 44.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Nightblood Gaming - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.