CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arch vs Next UP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b5be0cc2fe547634368a10e1615634e48141470d581c8e50d90451d5ca03f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Archof Arch, Next UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked Arch | 48c | 1,331$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.76 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Next UP | 59c | 841.12$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Next UP | 50c | 401.66$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arch | 35c | 321.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Next UP | 43c | 310.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Arch | 44c | 296.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Next UP | 47c | 281.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Arch | 43c | 224$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Next UP | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Next UP | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Next UP | 58c | 171.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Next UP | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Arch | 39c | 85.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed Next UP | 48c | 72.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Arch | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Arch | 41c | 67.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Arch | 43c | 63.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Arch | 61c | 62.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Next UP | 62c | 59.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…11b8backed Arch | 53c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Arch | 38c | 46.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Next UP | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Arch | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Arch | 42c | 42.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Next UP | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Next UP | 48c | 39.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Arch | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…e948backed Next UP | 68c | 35.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Next UP | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Arch | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Next UP | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Arch | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Arch | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Arch | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Arch | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Next UP | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arch | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Next UP | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Arch vs Next UP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Arch vs Next UP (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 PlayoffsArch won
- Counter-Strike: Arch vs Next UP - Map 2 WinnerArch won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.