Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rogaska Slatina: Sara Mikaca vs Lavinia Luciano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ccf0c1101b4c97e850c27400a72a666ca506c18544f7b806fc12f6a6aa6f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sara Mikacaof Sara Mikaca, Lavinia Luciano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lavinia Luciano | 38c | 1,277$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Sara Mikaca | 60c | 1,166$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.54 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Sara Mikaca | 65c | 597.46$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lavinia Luciano | 44c | 337.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Sara Mikaca | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Lavinia Luciano | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +10.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Lavinia Luciano | 38c | 131.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sara Mikaca | 62c | 118.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Lavinia Luciano | 60c | 116.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Lavinia Luciano | 66c | 64.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Lavinia Luciano | 31c | 55.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Sara Mikaca | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…7453backed Sara Mikaca | 78c | 37.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Sara Mikaca | 79c | 36.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sara Mikaca | 58c | 35.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lavinia Luciano | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sara Mikaca | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sara Mikaca | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…18a9backed Sara Mikaca | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…6b6abacked Sara Mikaca | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Sara Mikaca | 63c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Sara Mikaca | 62c | 26.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Sara Mikaca | 66c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Sara Mikaca | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sara Mikaca | 69c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.