Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ee3b48fc80250013fb79033093b61324573ca56be7ca329f5b5528d2c4e534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf988…f5f6backed Under | 78c | 1,522$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,126$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.87 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 37c | 400$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 62c | 267.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 34c | 266.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 80c | 236.04$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 46c | 219.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 62c | 202.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 193.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 35c | 181.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Over | 6c | 180$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +582.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 175.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 36c | 139.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 63c | 100.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 87.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 44c | 73.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 62.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 50c | 47.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Over | 33c | 34.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +127%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.