Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959e965aeb585c03dd5eb959b66be8d1d215755f33c4b37e6358814ca89ec7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,048$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.16 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 36c | 1,030$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 764.56$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.62 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 53c | 699.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Over | 70c | 512.29$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 14c | 356.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 28c | 352.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 347.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 299.96$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 19c | 285$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 52c | 232.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 6c | 212.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 63c | 158.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 123.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Under | 47c | 116.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 19c | 104.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…d808backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 55c | 43.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 65c | 39.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 80c | 16.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.