Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5609e7a3157d6d38a6f522658e4dfeeddd27301b2e1861413b53ef623b7d7cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 77c | 1,400$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Up | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 27c | 560.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…b8d2backed Up | 15c | 544.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Up | 30c | 432.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Down | 80c | 331.62$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Up | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Up | 6c | 272.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Up | 27c | 270.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 21c | 251$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…72b1backed Down | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…e733backed Up | 9c | 200.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…0c45backed Up | 22c | 172.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…202fbacked Down | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Up | 19c | 134.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Down | 73c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 76c | 91.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Down | 70c | 78.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…6ed1backed Up | 26c | 72.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…624abacked Up | 34c | 69.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…a539backed Up | 38c | 50.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Down | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 29c | 47.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a31…7efebacked Up | 31c | 38.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 73c | 34.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…e1f9backed Down | 80c | 24.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…d6b7backed Down | 75c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…badebacked Down | 71c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Down | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.