NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56173a73acadda98823d985c56572e89c326ec309e529ad3235c9bdeaaf6a96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 34c | 2,300$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.57 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 55c | 1,820$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,786$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.78 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 55c | 1,567$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.27 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 46c | 871$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Under | 54c | 847.79$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 768$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.28 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 443.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 263.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 47c | 221.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 45c | 194.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c2d9backed Under | 56c | 118.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…e547backed Under | 55c | 72.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Over | 46c | 53.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…5cebbacked Over | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. DevilsIslanders won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.