NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d08364d57d435e3ca96599a78c2965926b68840934501a7b90e603e9b40a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Devils, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Islanders | 63c | 1,676$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.03 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Devils | 38c | 749$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Devils | 37c | 670$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Devils | 37c | 582.68$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Islanders | 62c | 223.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Islanders | 64c | 193.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Devils | 38c | 182.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Islanders | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Devils | 36c | 141$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Islanders | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Devils | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Islanders | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Devils | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Islanders | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Devils | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Islanders | 61c | 52.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Devils | 34c | 34.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…18e8backed Islanders | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Islanders | 62c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…5cebbacked Islanders | 66c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. DevilsIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.