Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563c596d5412dec2a3121aa0341aafdbf4de7bd9c400b5ebe50b4ce91534940d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,893 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 15,720$10,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,887.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 38c | 7,185$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.29 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 58c | 2,558$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 1,756$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.57 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed No | 67c | 1,318$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 43c | 838.31$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.47 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 10c | 730.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed No | 58c | 691.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.58 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 238.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 217.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 212.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 59c | 170.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 57c | 166.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 70c | 164.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 33c | 151.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…7e68backed Yes | 41c | 123.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 123$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Yes | 41c | 102.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 70c | 96.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 43c | 70.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 57c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 57c | 56.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 70c | 54.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…c32bbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 57c | 42.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 40.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked Yes | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 57c | 32.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 56c | 31.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…d148backed No | 72c | 30.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…0a27backed Yes | 41c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaa…1eb9backed No | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed No | 65c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed No | 62c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.