Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e4c31024b875eae465c8af12d429c1992888d50dda5c7d93ce15112afeb88e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 5,387$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,700$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 16c | 1,365$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 33c | 901.49$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.99 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 753.49$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.8 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 70c | 682.24$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.52 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 31c | 499.96$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.97 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 31c | 498.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.85 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 15c | 473.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 36c | 369.93$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 66c | 338.87$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…a266backed No | 68c | 329.68$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 32c | 311.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 64c | 256.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 27c | 253.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 32c | 190.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 34c | 158.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 33c | 139.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 44c | 138.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Yes | 38c | 133.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed No | 15c | 106.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 13c | 101.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…5d96backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 71.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 32c | 60.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 35c | 57.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 53.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 49.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 41.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 32c | 36.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 36c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 30.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…c32bbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 51c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.