Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x565cc4636a1933c82de65b0222582061048d68e670bc5df5d70bd8a37fd178a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 26c | 846.15$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 18c | 803.21$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 658.77$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…83dabacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 444.4$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 339.86$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 73c | 300.48$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 44c | 278.34$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 60c | 241.07$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 226.46$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 74c | 214.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 157.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 28c | 156.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 69c | 119.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 74c | 108.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…21f5backed Yes | 25c | 79.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…f468backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 74.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 65.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…e547backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 75c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 79c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.