Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032e945ff9d0121de17ace1eab86cc13c1131cc42e556fb7b0f2794d83e721f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 50c | 133,828$66,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,914.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 50c | 35,000$17,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,500 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 50c | 31,996$15,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,998.08 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 25,770$13,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,116.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 62c | 18,738$11,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,574.57 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 50c | 8,573$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,279.95 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 32c | 2,739$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 50c | 2,666$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 31c | 2,007$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.91 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked Yes | 43c | 1,659$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 66c | 1,593$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.3 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 32c | 1,447$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.42 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,326$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.81 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 49c | 1,269$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.44 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 50c | 994.03$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…83dabacked Yes | 44c | 947.89$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 50c | 885$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.42 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 20c | 786.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.19 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 50c | 622$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 50c | 525.6$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 50c | 485$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 50c | 372$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Yes | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Yes | 50c | 359.9$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 50c | 341.7$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 50c | 248.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 43c | 234.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 51c | 213.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…34e7backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 50c | 170.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 49c | 114.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 47c | 103.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…844cbacked Yes | 20c | 86.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 50c | 80.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 52c | 76.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 50c | 68.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 52c | 52.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 35c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Yes | 48c | 42.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…e772backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked Yes | 49c | 36.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 42c | 24.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…a2f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 74c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.