Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc6444b3d342631286fac2cb8650821d912d4846eab9b789dd411434615873c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 2,142$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.31 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 47c | 1,243$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 44c | 1,095$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.51 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 69c | 614.33$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 62c | 591.64$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.48 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 60c | 441$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Yes | 47c | 424.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 420$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 65c | 341.14$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 297$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 14c | 287.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.94 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Yes | 69c | 285.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 72c | 279.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 275.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 69c | 214.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 159.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +149%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 65c | 66.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 61.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 57c | 32.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.