Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x566e13419160870afd347275bdf10bdc24600f1d98bb368be15bd53510bfb59c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed No | 80c | 1,005$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 733.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 436.44$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 65c | 321.05$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 37c | 309.72$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…f8b7backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 38c | 265.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 265.09$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 70c | 257.06$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 29c | 235.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 34c | 168.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 155.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 38c | 144.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 37c | 133.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 101.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Yes | 37c | 77.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 68c | 76.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 36c | 64.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…dcecbacked Yes | 60c | 43.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 63c | 40.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b35bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 63c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.