Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x567277196702c6dc4e8afe1742abd65b0c74333d38e572d3c87cdeb065ee780a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 792.34$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.4 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…cf09backed Under | 48c | 368.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 281.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 52c | 187.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 56c | 53.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 48.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…612bbacked Under | 66c | 39.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 46c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.