Serie A · resolved market

Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-06?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5674e78b1558b875d963f4031491039b682a56780d527592047a9cbb044fd797

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $237,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $283,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,351 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	16c	38,683$6,281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,281.43	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes	17c	21,766$3,689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,689.01	687	50.8%349 W · 338 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes	17c	6,748$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.12	455	47%214 W · 241 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes	16c	6,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes	3c	5,518$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.93	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes	18c	4,342$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.77	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes	1c	4,183$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.83	56	5.4%3 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes	17c	4,093$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.35	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes	18c	2,961$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.39	141	42.6%60 W · 81 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	142	49.3%70 W · 72 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes	17c	1,857$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.74	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9665…e721backed Yes	17c	1,572$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.17	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes	16c	1,491$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.49	175	43.4%76 W · 99 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes	17c	1,337$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.37	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe51e…967abacked Yes	15c	1,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes	16c	1,322$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.48	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-7.3wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes	16c	1,214$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.59	447	53.5%239 W · 208 L	+17.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Yes	17c	1,176$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	15c	1,084$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.42	592	40.7%241 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes	17c	800$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	208	27.9%58 W · 150 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes	17c	772.89$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.39	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Yes	15c	700$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes	17c	645.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.14	419	43.9%184 W · 235 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	119	55.5%66 W · 53 L	+12.4wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d6b…5263backed Yes	18c	540.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes	17c	499.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.29	136	39.7%54 W · 82 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes	17c	499.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.75	95	56.8%54 W · 41 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	16c	448.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.84	242	38.4%93 W · 149 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Yes	16c	420.83$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.33	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.22per pick	38cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes	18c	375$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	289	31.8%92 W · 197 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f2…d776backed Yes	8c	353$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	18c	346$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.28	277	37.2%103 W · 174 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes	12c	339.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.27	129	29.5%38 W · 91 L	-6.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes	17c	310.03$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.71	195	49.7%97 W · 98 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes	8c	290.28$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	175	29.1%51 W · 124 L	-14.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f50…d342backed Yes	16c	262.78$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.32	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	17c	261.04$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	233	53.6%125 W · 108 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd0…732cbacked Yes	17c	254.79$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.91	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff3…70e4backed Yes	17c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf828…fca3backed Yes	16c	199.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…7b6dbacked Yes	8c	188.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes	13c	160$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes	18c	150.56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	207	41.5%86 W · 121 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes	17c	148.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	233	53.6%125 W · 108 L	+14.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8b3…8528backed Yes	18c	135.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes	13c	135.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb98…70cdbacked Yes	18c	130.06$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…7ec0backed Yes	19c	107.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Yes	16c	106.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes	17c	106$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	145	49.7%72 W · 73 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb5…998abacked Yes	15c	99.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…807dbacked Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Yes	18c	79.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	43cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d052backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1d06backed Yes	19c	70.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Yes	19c	67.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb417…0fd2backed Yes	16c	67.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes	17c	65.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	195	42.6%83 W · 112 L	-10.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…8e90backed Yes	18c	60.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes	17c	59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	171	42.7%73 W · 98 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3c…e863backed Yes	18c	58.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab1c…6451backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	42cpaid	+58%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-06?this page
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-06?Yes won
Will Pisa SC vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-06?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event