NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574a7b386a9802b479ef2da1dab671a875d3ea1e8e8f0dd3f8e8534e23e6e757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coachella Valley Firebirdsof Bakersfield Condors, Coachella Valley Firebirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 50c | 1,006$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.44 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 69c | 351.78$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Bakersfield Condors | 23c | 309.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Bakersfield Condors | 20c | 272.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 218.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bakersfield Condors | 32c | 179.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…0023backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 173.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 73c | 169.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 165.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 67c | 131.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…97e6backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 65c | 128.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Bakersfield Condors | 35c | 102.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 50c | 101.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 96.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Bakersfield Condors | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 73.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 76c | 68.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 54c | 68.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 63.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 53.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 28.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…eee4backed Bakersfield Condors | 50c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…ed51backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 50c | 23.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.