Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576d74a9e46a94c582caf9539af492650df5c866214ff82f856e32c31538d1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 45c | 2,502$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.51 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 689.78$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.87 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 46c | 608.64$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.04 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 471.61$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 53c | 371.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…75ffbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Yes | 55c | 276$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 54c | 275.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 51c | 231.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 5c | 205.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…ebb0backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 39c | 122.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…60afbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 65c | 86.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 55c | 82.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 55c | 78.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…e2c9backed Yes | 54c | 52.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f5…6532backed Yes | 58c | 51.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a63ebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…dfeebacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Yes | 54c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will BK Häcken vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?Yes won
- Will BK Häcken win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.