CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Change The Game (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57841dca32d89a49897162bdb09d56b4f3a515b7e2adebcd65a32381e39cfa66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof SemperFi Esports, Change The Game
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1311…d450backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 2,225$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Change The Game | 20c | 2,146$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Change The Game | 18c | 1,484$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.15 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked SemperFi Esports | 79c | 600$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Change The Game | 21c | 600$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Change The Game | 21c | 530.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Change The Game | 17c | 399.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Change The Game | 23c | 381.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Change The Game | 12c | 364.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Change The Game | 20c | 348.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…9defbacked SemperFi Esports | 78c | 311.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked SemperFi Esports | 79c | 302.6$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Change The Game | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Change The Game | 21c | 222.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Change The Game | 22c | 218.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…a7aebacked SemperFi Esports | 75c | 133.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Change The Game | 11c | 123.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04c…55d3backed SemperFi Esports | 78c | 109.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Change The Game | 15c | 89.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SemperFi Esports | 71c | 77.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…2087backed Change The Game | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked SemperFi Esports | 79c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Change The Game | 29c | 35.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked SemperFi Esports | 78c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked SemperFi Esports | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 230 | 38.3%88 W · 142 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked SemperFi Esports | 70c | 23.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed SemperFi Esports | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…73b2backed SemperFi Esports | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Change The Game (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Change The Game - Map 1 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Change The Game - Map 2 WinnerChange The Game won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.