World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b57275034edc5ac7ff9acd197a6d3f38a333ed676ab9509775a6caec9ddc25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 397.84$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 139.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 135.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 123$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…1a16backed Yes | 62c | 106.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 190 | 45.3%86 W · 104 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 91.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 47c | 78.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 74.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 67.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 64.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 43c | 64.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 60c | 57.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 57.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 48.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 51c | 47.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 46c | 43.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff46…c70bbacked Yes | 61c | 18.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.