NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c1d452dc84f3469411ecf450ee395fd9427d68510e7f6ab5179cbae2497114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 47c | 1,116$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.52 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Under | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 45c | 727.27$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.27 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 570$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 56c | 500.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…a98bbacked Under | 56c | 442.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 352.16$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 56c | 303.43$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed Under | 56c | 241.29$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 107.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 67.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 44c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 55c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…52b6backed Over | 47c | 43.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…3fd9backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 44c | 39.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. SabresSabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.