Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cb5d5ba21a55951bff1a39ff24c38580dce7fd95a41c69ac0e75f49c8d72ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0359…4fc7backed Under | 77c | 943.97$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…0014backed Over | 23c | 933.94$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 443.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 328.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 263.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Under | 75c | 201.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 192.51$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Over | 20c | 189.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 145.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 22c | 135.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 67c | 41.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.