Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e0939a78e7bba02e49e1cc2ebb59bf9c6a830534e55cd0793e92d9f4931620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 57c | 1,708$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.63 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 1,036$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 72c | 680.13$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 36c | 586.84$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 571.28$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Over | 53c | 352.74$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 70c | 194.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 172.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 69c | 113.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Under | 69c | 108.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 69c | 106.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Over | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 69c | 93.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 35c | 75.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 53c | 60.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589d…b958backed Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…d8adbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 35c | 47.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 34c | 45.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a22…2929backed Under | 48c | 44.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Under | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed Over | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 36.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 45c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 31.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Over | 44c | 31.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…a867backed Under | 46c | 29.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 69c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 48c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 70c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…1001backed Under | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…82aabacked Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…ea7dbacked Under | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.