TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on March 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,079 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78c3…7003backed No1c2,563$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.632544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc215…c9bcbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes73c638.07$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.274,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No35c570.61$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7654143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No15c533.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No32c255.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9212540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No32c248.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8638840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b07…a7c5backed No33c228.01$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.563063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes80c204.53$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2726827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes79c191.5$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9613430.6%41 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No45c167.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39e3…518bbacked No31c160.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes69c154$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.381,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca12…e855backed Yes66c150.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes63c145.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.191675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No33c141.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes60c123.12$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No22c120.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.881,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes67c120$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.229469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No24c119.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.339523.2%22 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No46c114.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c112$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.362,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes77c111$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.05850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes68c107.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes77c105.78$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.323,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes69c105.17$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3427841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes69c103.11$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6117237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No25c100.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes70c100.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.411947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c99.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.227,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc679…029cbacked No21c96.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…2e5fbacked No28c94.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe599…0dd3backed No31c90.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No21c89.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.238640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes55c79.02$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.216434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes75c75.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7374023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes71c70.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes71c68.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6446423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No36c64.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.282623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7919…ca3fbacked Yes64c64.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.283452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e99…9584backed No21c60.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5135843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2938…cce8backed No27c55.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No30c53.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.095257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1417364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc377…593fbacked Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1413964%89 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f90…b54abacked Yes41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.498459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c48.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c48.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No27c46.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1890…d328backed No32c46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.622737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes77c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…e9f4backed Yes78c42.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.311346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9023…1143backed No24c41.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…84d5backed Yes69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.49778.4%76 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc893…c015backed Yes70c35.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.653138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc801…cc76backed No29c34.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes69c33.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.219048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes69c30.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5516944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No44c30.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes76c30.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4411172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc319…2ffcbacked Yes77c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…aff3backed No43c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.083826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ce…2b6fbacked Yes72c26.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes69c21.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.621,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed Yes62c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.989260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd979…4a18backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.152369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.611341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1713…10fabacked Yes69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.23571.4%25 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick75cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe839…a758backed Yes69c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952d…5256backed Yes73c19.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes74c18.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked Yes67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9419171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes75c17.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.441338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22be…ba43backed Yes80c16.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.282982.8%24 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa933…4e84backed Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.