NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e6326a004aaeeabc7f2c5538e13ac95e59675ad1987302a875933ff5385527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 5,712$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.75 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Under | 50c | 4,288$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Under | 62c | 4,008$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.47 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 3,171$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.59 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 2,964$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 2,741$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.19 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 46c | 1,957$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.11 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 1,236$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.06 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Under | 52c | 721.15$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.15 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 638$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.85 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Under | 49c | 585$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 49c | 207.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 165 | 54.5%90 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 52c | 123.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 46c | 104.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 55c | 82.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 44.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. SabresAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.