World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580e875510e94f519014e77a356b63bf97b6a512bcded83e6371e628bf5eddca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 7c | 21,801$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.84 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…fdcabacked Yes | 14c | 7,408$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 5c | 3,676$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…6c96backed Yes | 9c | 3,462$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…60b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,991$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,765$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.28 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…d7fabacked Yes | 10c | 2,287$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…460bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,356$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e0d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,248$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,102$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…602dbacked Yes | 8c | 897.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 8c | 803.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Yes | 7c | 666.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 66c | 532.11$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 442$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 15c | 306.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…2cb6backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…3d90backed Yes | 7c | 297.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…7b25backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…7ed0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 76c | 54.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 30.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.