Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x588851f7cfc4b0f206a47b03ddb7cd42faadeb6b1790c94687d8da637a898cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 0c | 7,815$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 3c | 6,442$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 1c | 3,676$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,772$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 5c | 1,652$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6,262.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 4c | 1,484$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 10c | 1,456$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.1 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 1,055$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Yes | 2c | 936.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 3c | 685.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 2c | 656.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 24c | 635.64$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.31 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 7c | 622.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed Yes | 4c | 368.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 366.96$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 344.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 314.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 37c | 291.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…ee6ebacked No | 79c | 268.71$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes | 27c | 259.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 5c | 227.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 203.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 181.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 15c | 174.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 11c | 147.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 40c | 141.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 127.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 120.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 39c | 115.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 114.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 113.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 94.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 90.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 85.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 74.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 65.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 62c | 41.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 73c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 37.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 31.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.