Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc16293451b425cae912743963a020ba4ae49fb017c3b761d56c564789d396a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes | 55c | 814.7$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…c1d9backed No | 45c | 686.72$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 379$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 283$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 45c | 269.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 30c | 180$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 151.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 144.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 132.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 80c | 132.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 128.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 18c | 112.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 104.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 69c | 72.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…a6dcbacked Yes | 16c | 70.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 42.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…a490backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 69c | 23.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 21.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.