Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Martin Damm
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a3a14580499e928eb5458a59d4de9c6d5703e5d8137413fdc4782ece51515a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dammof Bailly, Damm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Bailly | 28c | 1,250$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.44 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Damm | 63c | 1,071$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.36 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bailly | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Damm | 63c | 623$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.77 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bailly | 29c | 410.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bailly | 36c | 386.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Damm | 72c | 323.32$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Damm | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bailly | 38c | 193.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bailly | 20c | 144$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Bailly | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Bailly | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Damm | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Damm | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Damm | 61c | 65.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Bailly | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Damm | 65c | 27.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Damm | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Damm | 63c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Damm | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Martin Dammthis page
- Bailly vs. Damm: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.