Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591c6f9924fa55a76f74aceb5c84f524d1fb72b4fa56d5fe088f8e3725ad2c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 12,192$7,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,295.09 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 77c | 8,013$6,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,137.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 23c | 4,355$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,353.35 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 24c | 2,478$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.11 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 19c | 1,915$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.59 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 66c | 1,506$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.07 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked Yes | 24c | 521$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.96 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 76c | 360$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 302.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.27 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 220.92$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 14c | 220$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 201.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 71c | 155$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3aa…7a89backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 96.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 28c | 92.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 71c | 62.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…7ff1backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 71c | 52.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 24c | 52.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 43c | 42.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 62 | 82.3%51 W · 11 L | +11.4wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.