Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AZ win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x593466a8d93cc1281cc5940b8ea158a55de12b1ee22e103c529e5831e32b19b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 80c | 2,127$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 1,516$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 20c | 929.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.38 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…140dbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 139.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 137.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 16c | 85.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 30c | 53.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 71c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 29c | 43.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. AZ end in a draw?No won
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.