Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5953c4a2580904cbc4829701c03159325ff57574b860b74ac6950a7fda9dab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 75c | 1,788$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 66c | 1,148$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.62 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 50c | 986.4$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 22c | 975.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 50c | 909.09$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.64 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 72c | 595.6$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 39c | 390$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 48c | 366.77$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.84 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 51c | 362.75$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 34c | 335.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 48c | 334.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…51f4backed Yes | 50c | 315.12$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 48c | 314.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 152.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 50c | 133.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 48c | 124.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 60c | 103.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Yes | 53c | 60.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 47c | 60.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…cb54backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.