South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x595ae85a03f30f7fdf1929c6e07569210b9ba283977d914cc7b9fa3a412abf57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,810$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 50c | 1,793$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.72 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 49c | 1,036$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.86 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 630.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 51c | 556.81$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.79 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 70c | 525.06$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 14c | 298.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 51c | 233.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 13c | 196.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 52c | 193.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 49c | 126.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 119.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 52c | 116.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 106.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 15c | 91.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 15c | 88.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 68.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 48c | 63.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 54.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…738cbacked Over | 52c | 51.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 55c | 40.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)Academia Puerto Cabello won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Academia Puerto Cabello won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.