Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x597b91fc9e6cadd21324d776fb2a1cb84e68766d5fb9fafe2fbb27396b21e0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc248…3b44backed Down | 49c | 2,200$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Down | 36c | 1,705$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…a79bbacked Up | 69c | 1,300$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…6fb5backed Down | 31c | 1,300$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Up | 6c | 990.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b72fbacked Up | 11c | 888$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…ce10backed Up | 73c | 695.35$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Up | 23c | 540.12$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…00e1backed Up | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…777abacked Down | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Down | 29c | 449.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.01 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…44a9backed Up | 65c | 396.77$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…75a0backed Up | 77c | 380.92$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cb…da6fbacked Up | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Up | 76c | 228.7$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…ce91backed Up | 65c | 225.52$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Up | 49c | 195$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Down | 23c | 185.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…fa1ebacked Up | 62c | 160.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Down | 15c | 146.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Down | 38c | 127$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f54…adfebacked Up | 77c | 116.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Down | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked Up | 78c | 81.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 26c | 71.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…0503backed Up | 24c | 63.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Down | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked Down | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +233%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…0471backed Down | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Up | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb20c…b319backed Up | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked Up | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Up | 67c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Down | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.