Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Marin Cilic vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59aae7a804b79652e6914a060453b9acb6cd689755331c9478061d76387dd8c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cilicof Cilic, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mannarino | 11c | 6,714$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.47 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mannarino | 1c | 3,975$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Cilic | 55c | 1,852$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaf…9343backed Mannarino | 1c | 1,129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Cilic | 56c | 824.07$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mannarino | 23c | 719.64$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Cilic | 55c | 627.46$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.7 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Mannarino | 44c | 621.68$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.54 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mannarino | 40c | 608.79$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.92 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Mannarino | 45c | 528.14$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Mannarino | 49c | 411.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Mannarino | 45c | 266.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 943 | 55.7%525 W · 418 L | +22.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Cilic | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…ef99backed Cilic | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cilic | 62c | 221.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cilic | 73c | 200.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mannarino | 44c | 131.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…0431backed Cilic | 73c | 116.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mannarino | 14c | 109.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Mannarino | 45c | 104.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Mannarino | 51c | 98.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Cilic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…3edebacked Cilic | 79c | 86.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Mannarino | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…149ebacked Cilic | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Mannarino | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Cilic | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Mannarino | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf70backed Cilic | 77c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Cilic | 51c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Cilic | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong Tennis Open: Marin Cilic vs Adrian Mannarinothis page
- Cilic vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Cilic vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.