NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b294d2c729daba67bfef9d9db6df6d456e020f52981622f0fb3e29a32d2b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canucksof Lightning, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Canucks | 61c | 307.69$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Lightning | 40c | 190.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Canucks | 61c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Canucks | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Lightning | 51c | 117.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Lightning | 27c | 112.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Canucks | 73c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Lightning | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Canucks | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Lightning | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…a7c6backed Lightning | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Lightning | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Canucks | 62c | 37.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Canucks | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Lightning | 38c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Canucks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Canucks | 59c | 32.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…ba9cbacked Lightning | 39c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…acacbacked Canucks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Lightning | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Canucks | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. LightningCanucks won
- Canucks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.