NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59dc9671cecf2fbfd0bc018e939a247f9dd1733a66194644627fdac3aa4845af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Flyers | 68c | 3,125$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Flyers | 69c | 1,710$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…8a5cbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 1,456$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…ece1backed Flyers | 69c | 1,354$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…0981backed Flyers | 69c | 1,125$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…133dbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 1,023$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…8208backed Flyers | 69c | 935$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Flyers | 68c | 918.15$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…589cbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 836$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Flyers | 68c | 778.42$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.76 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…77dfbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 752$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…eb0cbacked Flyers | 69c | 653$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 571$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 570$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 569$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 452$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 451$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 450$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 304.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Flyers | 68c | 43.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlyersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.