Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2f435f18e970b73f6ca41940cdd0729fd1cd5a3952278a77a9c778496f5db4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Altmaier, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 33c | 1,319$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.41 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…ac9abacked Medvedev | 31c | 1,021$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Altmaier | 67c | 779.44$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.43 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Altmaier | 62c | 454.5$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00c…efc3backed Altmaier | 69c | 429.16$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Medvedev | 67c | 422$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.74 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Medvedev | 38c | 252.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Medvedev | 42c | 251.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Medvedev | 38c | 197$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Medvedev | 31c | 157.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Medvedev | 68c | 151.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Medvedev | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Medvedev | 65c | 146$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Medvedev | 31c | 102.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Altmaier | 67c | 99.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Medvedev | 31c | 71.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9843…266fbacked Medvedev | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Medvedev | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedevthis page
- Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil MedvedevDaniel Altmaier won
- Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)Altmaier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.