Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x466a2d437f55616088b38edc036eb270e7b74bd857dd7f61c8139d289a5f87e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Medvedev, Altmaier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Medvedev | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,599.98 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Altmaier | 37c | 12,686$4,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,992.4 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Medvedev | 2c | 3,350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Altmaier | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…8792backed Medvedev | 49c | 2,243$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.9 | 304 | 40.5%123 W · 181 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.67 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Altmaier | 37c | 1,846$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.45 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Altmaier | 37c | 999.98$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.46 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Medvedev | 2c | 947.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Altmaier | 39c | 883.94$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.72 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Medvedev | 61c | 799.8$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.88 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Medvedev | 64c | 781.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Altmaier | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Altmaier | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Medvedev | 62c | 579.85$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.51 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Altmaier | 54c | 499.83$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Altmaier | 42c | 458.28$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Altmaier | 38c | 430.26$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Medvedev | 55c | 365.45$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 58c | 325.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Medvedev | 35c | 316$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Altmaier | 37c | 267.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Altmaier | 61c | 262.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Altmaier | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Altmaier | 37c | 227$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.01 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Altmaier | 37c | 216$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Altmaier | 50c | 201.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Medvedev | 48c | 127.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Altmaier | 42c | 120.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 922 | 37.4%345 W · 577 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 64c | 117.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Altmaier | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Altmaier | 37c | 98.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Medvedev | 37c | 96.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…8afdbacked Medvedev | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Medvedev | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…d645backed Altmaier | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Medvedev | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Altmaier | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Altmaier | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Medvedev | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)this page
- Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil MedvedevDaniel Altmaier won
- Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs MedvedevAltmaier won
- Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs MedvedevMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.