South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a56eadbe95028c64ee50e3b33c44f1ebc14fccfe2fe7d5c324461edab83958b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 59c | 35,000$20,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,350 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 41c | 29,887$12,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,253.63 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 18c | 3,775$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 1,442$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 41c | 1,255$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.3 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 67c | 585.41$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 381$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 79c | 268.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 59c | 218.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 40c | 205.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 6c | 200.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 19c | 169.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1b…d6cbbacked Yes | 59c | 164.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 15c | 159.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 32c | 149.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 59c | 137.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 15c | 125.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 62c | 97.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…bb94backed No | 42c | 96.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 42c | 81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a3c5backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 57c | 64.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 19c | 55.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked No | 29c | 54.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked No | 20c | 54.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Yes | 59c | 49.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 42c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 43c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…a6d2backed Yes | 61c | 36.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 39c | 36.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 75c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…6745backed Yes | 79c | 21.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…3d78backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Yes | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…e85dbacked Yes | 69c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will EC Juventude win on 2025-11-23?No won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. EC Juventude end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.