Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a785b3aa7027e39aa1a65f36381288c353fa43950ebabd33040eca51ec65296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 35c | 13,629$4,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,753.46 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 54c | 11,687$6,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.45 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 47c | 4,900$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.1 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 46c | 4,510$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 59c | 2,830$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.1 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 1,724$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed Yes | 56c | 1,564$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 51c | 1,101$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 55c | 548.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 54c | 503$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.41 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 46c | 499.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e9babacked Yes | 80c | 474.61$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 67c | 260$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 56c | 181.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…a2a5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 47c | 90.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 49c | 65.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 52c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…11ddbacked Yes | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.