Tennis · resolved market
ITF Aix-Les-Bains: Madison Sieg vs Lisa Zaar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7ac0e919ae2914b2d5796c62156a7fa47fa3690e5d9d5d981e02d582d50460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madison Siegof Madison Sieg, Lisa Zaar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f93…eb20backed Madison Sieg | 30c | 1,171$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.9 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lisa Zaar | 70c | 774.62$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.89 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Lisa Zaar | 37c | 734.07$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Lisa Zaar | 10c | 658$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Madison Sieg | 45c | 427.87$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.34 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Madison Sieg | 48c | 405.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.46 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Lisa Zaar | 11c | 312.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Madison Sieg | 70c | 268.4$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Lisa Zaar | 56c | 247.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lisa Zaar | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lisa Zaar | 58c | 187.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lisa Zaar | 12c | 179.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Lisa Zaar | 12c | 179.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lisa Zaar | 80c | 146.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Lisa Zaar | 11c | 111.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Madison Sieg | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Madison Sieg | 44c | 79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Lisa Zaar | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Madison Sieg | 22c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lisa Zaar | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Lisa Zaar | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Lisa Zaar | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…93d1backed Lisa Zaar | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 106 | 78.3%83 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lisa Zaar | 78c | 13.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.