Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8025d3c1dc8c16424943b0313d8b4458ca3d294b69383b072cecadcd5a5aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim Red Forceof Dplus KIA, Nongshim Red Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Dplus KIA | 45c | 10,040$4,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,530 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 10,038$5,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,517.27 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Dplus KIA | 47c | 3,973$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…8573backed Nongshim Red Force | 53c | 3,973$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…12e4backed Nongshim Red Force | 57c | 1,930$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…ad46backed Dplus KIA | 43c | 1,930$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Dplus KIA | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Nongshim Red Force | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 757 | 38.6%292 W · 465 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed Dplus KIA | 45c | 816.91$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.61 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…1135backed Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 531.91$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 440 | 42%185 W · 255 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Nongshim Red Force | 50c | 402$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0d…0fc9backed Dplus KIA | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Nongshim Red Force | 52c | 208$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 1,117 | 48.8%545 W · 572 L | +40.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Dplus KIA | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 596 | 47.7%284 W · 312 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 162.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf583…7b6bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 66c | 124.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Dplus KIA | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Dplus KIA | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Dplus KIA | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Dplus KIA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 54.3%501 W · 422 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Nongshim Red Force | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | +32.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…5ce1backed Dplus KIA | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…618ebacked Dplus KIA | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 61.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Nongshim Red Force | 48c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Dplus KIA | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…247dbacked Nongshim Red Force | 54c | 23.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Nongshim Red Force | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group StageDplus KIA won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 WinnerDplus KIA won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.